Unleashing the voracious appetite

Behind every economy powerhouse there exists a multitude of suppliers, designed to synchronize with a vast expanse of logistic network to carefully replenish the rapidly depleting resources. In a microeconomic scale, the powerhouse represents anything from a convenient store to a local superstore. In contrast, it can be anything from a multinational conglomerate to even an entire nation in a macroeconomic sense. This circular chain of supply and demand depicts the daily life of everyone in a modern cash exchange system. Superficially, it somewhat represents individual earning a living to a public company in need of polishing its bottom line. Although with different purpose, both share the identical prospects of production, delivery, sale, and resupply. However, when production skyrockets, it becomes increasing less transparent for a company to disclose its multitude of suppliers than an individual. The transparency becomes specially murky when we are dealing between nations. China, with a population of 1.3 billion, has seen a tremendous growth over the years since the economic reform of the late eighties. Rapid economic boom puts a heavy and continuous toll on the supplies, which quickly strains the limited raw material China possesses. Instead of reining in its economy, China feeds its voracious appetite from its foreign partners. From African countries, such as Sudan and Angola, to Latin American nations, such as Peru and Brazil, and even its arch rival Japan, couldn't escape the pinch of an emerging China. A generous humanitarian aid with a one-of-a-kind trade incentive is something any third-world country could not possibly forgo, even if it means the unconditional compliance of every demand China poses. But what they failed to foresee within the bilateral agreement is the ultimate betrayal of their next generation. When the resources native to their country dwindles over time, with depletion hits a generation later, the regret and discontent will no longer register, and the once-friendly China will no longer response. Exploitation of the third world has been a well-known issue, exemplified by Nigeria and Iraq, both holds the ever-so-popular precious resource - petroleum - with abundance, and both, due to a lack of national framework, laws, and policies, are being victimized by US-sanctioned multinational oil companies. Together with the rampant corruption, scarcely anything trickles down to relieve the poorest of all inhabitants, making both Nigeria and Iraq two of the world's most deprived countries. Although China came with open arms, the fervent courtship revolves around a similar theme of total resource extraction to feed China's ambitious economic program. Synonymous to natural selection, a country's usefulness runs dry when it no longer benefits China. That's when the abrupt display of China, its wraith and devastating power occurs.

Until then, we should always be vigilant and safeguard against the voracious appetite of a monstrous regime.

Chinese-style economy, a surge of endless possibilities?

I can't help but laughed at the "Chinese-style" economy when this article surfaced recently in New York Times. What exactly is the "Chinese" way of doing business? To describe its business guideline, motive and goal requires no other than a mere stroll along the aisle of Wal-Mart. Chinese-style economy rhythms with cheap labor, a pegged currency, and a massive reservoir of other people's currency. The cheap labor trump card by itself is enough to swallow a country whole. Fueled by consumer greed, low income and the global market inflation, China no longer dwells on producing low-level consumer goods, earning marginal income. Rather, China now concentrates extensively on highly sophisticated, high-tech goods, earnings of which can easily outpaced its counterparts, given the "made in China" label a recognition as a formidable adversary amongst the global manufacturing enterprises. Apart from the labor exploitation, a firm peg in currency is equally strenuous on the foreign export market of another nation, where a good made in China at a below cost can easily replace that from a foreigner. Patriotism, a symbol of the undying love for the motherland, further stifles foreign competitors since being Chinese, buy Chinese is a "normal" and "healthy" illustration of love for China, despite poor product quality and likely product-related health hazards. Altogether, these unbeatable advantages, coupled with a favorable geographical location and a massive workforce, render China the dominant destination to outsource, particularly for companies across North America, where degradation of employee rights further add fuel to the exploding unemployment rate.

In my own opinion, a "Chinese-style" economy is no different than how robber and thief do business - an inconspicuous, behind-the-back stabbing followed by the forefront, ruthless assault on the ailing victims, until all are stolen, including conscience, dignity, and morale values. Their "economy" is what accentuates the death tolls in Sichuan. Their "economy" is what exemplifies the corruption of a one-state government. Their "economy" is what widens the gap between the rich and the poor. In all, their "economy" is the sole reason why inequality thrives in a country of 1.3 billion.

People in the land of fair and free, are you willing to revert back to the Stone Age, disregard all human life and dignity, just so that the bottom-line would look perhaps favorable?

A glimmer of hope

After reading this update on the Sichuan earthquake, I'm relieved to see there is still a glimmer of hope for establishing an accountable government in China, despite its firm one-state policy. "Every crow shares the same blackness everywhere" is no longer a mock of the governing system in China, but a challenge to be more accountable in a society believing in the socialist teaching. An accountable system benefits all, from a reliable policy to safeguard citizens to trustworthy friends and allies. It brings satisfaction, innovation and motivation to propel a society for the better. Accountability is the driving force behind the North American innovation, where people strive away from originality because they feel the need to and it empowers them to do so. If China wishes to be a part of the innovative process, itself has to embrace an accountable guidelines and take the public opinion for granted so the overall infrastructure would move forward, not idle, like it is now on the global arena. Then again, bringing forth an accountable system would spell an end to the reigning one-state policy, and who wouldn't want that to happen?

Sadly, the unaccountable system failed its inhabitants last month during the earthquake.

The rise and fall of sweet crude, fact or fiction?

"One hell of a roller coaster ride," that's exactly the phrase to describe the recent rise and fall of the sweet crude. From the steepest ascend to the most unrecoverable downturn, the fluctuation in crude has profited all international oil firms but left the consumers in awe, startled and shaken. For the SUV owners, a trip to the bump not only puts a dent on the wallet, it is also a stark reminder that an end will soon come to the gas-guzzling monsters popularized in the nineties. For a consumer like you and me, our driving habits are no longer shaped by the destinations, but by an abstract price the world has come to respect. Some brave souls even switched how they commute, from the once paddle-happy, guilt-free accelerator to the now burden-laden, human-power form of transportation. Although they argued it's a healthy alternative which would strengthen the body, mind and pollute less, deep down inside they cursed on being self-reliant and whined at the first sign of exhaustion.

What is more nerve-racking is the ongoing inflation of everything, coupled together with a fixed income, further exasperate the situation to ten-fold, especially for the lower demography. So, are the consumers doomed to comply with the path of no return, paved in secret by the alliance between OPEC and major oil conglomerates, or is there a leeway which would otherwise alleviate the ongoing high cost of filling a tank? Below is an extensive commentary from a dear friend of mine who has been closely tracking the cause and effect of crude prices. Enjoy!

My 2 cents on recent fluctuations of LSC (light sweet crude) and price at the pump.

It's been very interesting few months watching the market closely. This is what happened to oil price in previous months. The prices are 'future contract' prices. Major highlights of LSC price in past few months are as follows:

1. broke $100 in January.
2. broke $120 in March.
3. broke $130 in May and climbed up to $135 during the week of May 22.
4. retreat to low $120's early last week (closed at $122 on June 4th).
5. sky rocket $5 on June 5th and $11 on June 6th. This is the largest jump of LSC future contract price in the history of NYEX.

For each of the above, the main cause, as far as I can tell (gathering news from Bloomberg and Globe and Mail, plus other investment firm's announcements) is listed as follows:

1. The steady rise of crude price since last year is due to the weakening US dollar since sub-prime mortgage bubble burst in August '07. On January 21st '08, US Feds cut rate by 0.75%, largest cut in 5 years since 9-11. This impacts the dollar and weakens it on the global market.

2. March 16th is the day when US Feds announced that it will help JP Morgan to take out Bear Sterns Co., 5th largest investment firm in US. It's the first time the US Feds directly intervene with the market since the 1930's. In doing so send shock waves through the entire world. DJIA dropped 5~10% across the board and commodity prices kept on rocketing upwards.

3. In May, the OPEC rejected Bush's request for increase production and limits the demand for this year, therefore, price goes up further and pushes through $130.

4. In mid-May, the price at the pump broke $4/gallon for the first time in history. The CPI (monthly Consumer Price Index data) and other data showed weakening of gasoline consumption by as much as 8% the moment the price went over $4/gallon (i.e. the demand of oil finally reduced for the first time) and the price started to decline. Also, US Fed, as well as Bush, started to signal the end of rate cut, as well as strengthening of the US dollar. This will eventually reduced the price of crude because crude is priced in US dollar.

5. This is an interesting one. Because there has been no major announcements before June 4 in regards to crude prices. The sudden jump of the price on June 5th is the work of 'insiders' who know about the JP Morgan's announcement on Friday (June 6th). On Friday, JP Morgan's energy specialist announced their projection for crude future is $150/br by JULY 2008 due to increasing demand from China and India.

Currently (June 10th) the crude is trading at mid 130's and the projections are everywhere: Lehman Brother (another large US investment bank)'s projection is $80/br by the end of this year or early next year while JP Morgan's project is $150/br by this year. CIBC's projection is $150 by 2009 and $200 by 2012. In all cases, the main factors that will be driving the crude price are:

1. supply: The "peak oil" is now the consensus of the industry. Global production peaked in December 2005 (this is verifiable data and published). Although there are reserves in the Alaska region, as well as BC/NS offshore and couple of possible deep-water wells. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN DRILLED and therefore it will take 3~5 years before they start to produce oil (if they even have oil to start with). Bio-fuel's production is now under a lot of criticisms because it only supply ~1% of the demand while jacking up food prices by 300~500%.

2. Demand: Emerging market (China and India) is increasing their demand. However, we do started seeing demand reduce in north America and Europe when the price is high. This is a good thing. Toyota, for the first time, out-sold their small cars to GM's SUV's and trucks. GM is now closing 5 major truck/SUV plants and is considering selling the HUMMER brand (for nothing? because no one wants to buy a Hummer when it cost ~$200 to fill up). All of this signals the consumer realization of 'the end of cheap oil' and will likely continue as price rise. China is now subsidizing 75% of their gasoline and this will not continue (not at $130/br) and eventually will drive the demand down.

3. Political stability of middle-East and other oil-producing regions: Israel recently intensified their threat to attack Iran while Obama made speeches to support Israel's sovereignty. The supply from Iraq is also not stable. Yesterday Nigeria's energy minister made a speech that OPEC is no longer be able to handle the price of crude.

4. Strength of the dollar: Since the sub-prime bubble burst last August, US dollar has been spiral downward. Since crude is trade in US dollar, weakening US dollar means price increase. As of now the home-foreclosure situation HAS NOT HIT THE BOTTOM AND WILL GET WORSE FOR AT LEAST 9 MORE MONTHS. The banks, on the other hand, has dealt with the liquidity problem and should start coming back sooner than that. At the same time, US Fed has announced the end of the rate cut, which will strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. Bank of Canada also followed suit just today (June 10th) with decision NOT to cut rate.

5. Other speculations: This is actually not that important in the long run (3~5 year+) but fairly critical in the short run. Speculators drive up the price. But at the same time, the demand drops when the price rise too sharply. I haven't give this one a detailed break down yet and will not comment further.

Gathering above factors. The impact of #1 and #5 is almost real-time and they almost for sure pushes the price up. While #2~#4 works against the price increase. However #2~#4 will not come into full effect for at least another 10 months (as for #3, I don't think I'll see it happening in my life time).

So long story short, the price of crude will likely swing between $140 and $120 this year. If world peace and all the best case scenarios played out (not likely), we may see it go back down to $80 (not likely) within a year. But the price of crude will go up for sure.

What does it mean for gasoline price at the pump? It will stay at 1.30 ~ 1.45 for rest of the summer, if not going up more.

What should we do? I wouldn't buy a car this year nor next year. In 2~3 years you will see amazingly fuel-efficient cars coming on-line and another year or two to drive the price down. Then buy the car of your choice. In the mean time, I would rent cars for trips / weekend outings and use buses or walk. Glad that I stayed in Halifax because I can walk everywhere.

Well, all these analysis is giving me a headache? Don't you agree? Although informative as it may sound, glancing through this in-depth analysis can easily overwhelm all sensory inputs and put the reader in a self-induced migraine. I guess that's why there's a profession for everything at a premium, such that the end-user would never, ever have to think except how to pay, how much to pay, and sign that damn underline authorizing payment.

Regarding the "oil" problem, my take is, with the limited number of cuts on a small piece of pie, why bother fighting for something intangible? Not driving or drive as little as possible, not only saves but also benefits the planet Earth. Think about it. If we don't conserve and regulate, everything we do this century will come back to haunt us, in the form of starvation, deprivation, and warfare amongst the living. For the upper echelons, it may be easy to ignore the deprived, but when considering parts of your tax dollar go directly to the relief effort, would you dare being so indifferent? Our next generation can't win alone. Only after a forefront confrontation by the awakening masses will the harm be reduced. It may sound ridiculous, but with the repeatedly emergence of warning signs, we can only hope what the scientists are predicting is wrong - the imminent arrival of a global catastrophic meltdown.

A leadership in shame

Is this what being Canadian is all about? To bow and apologize for the past wrongdoings? Although the recent apology is a necessary and constructive step to reconcile the long mistrust and division between the First Nations and the Crown, it brought incompetence and shame to the all Canadians. An apology is worth a thousand words, but an apology too many is not only worthless but also a showcase of the cowardice among the governing few. First there's the Head Tax, then there's the deportation fiasco, now it comes to the residential school, and therein laid the mistreatment of thousands of Native youth. Abused and shamed, these former students repeatedly sought justice not with compensation, but by the carefully crafted words spewing out from the mouth of the Prime Minister. Demanding and enraged they were, the Prime Minister in charge eventually relent. Bowing to pressure, not from his obligation to safeguard the dignity of the constituents, but from the long accumulation of conscienceless discrimination to the First people. However, the honorable Him failed to foresee the consequence to the stream of apologies his government has made. It symbolizes an incompetent, weak and dwindling governing body, which is not only subject to criticism but the characteristic of it can easily be mistakenly smeared onto people carrying its nationality. Myself, a Canadian, felt ashamed of my identity after being betrayed by the very people I trusted. I realized, with no objection, this shameless parade of nonsense would only spell death sentence to the dignity of my fellow Canadians. That's why it is necessary for everyone to shout "enough is enough, we are not your clowns, Mr. Harper!"

An apology is worth a thousand words, but an apology too many would only backfire!

Mission accomplished, but?

With the daunting task of a stupendous display on a closure, my mind lingers with an afterthought of introspection. Despite what we have put forth, in the name of the Sichuan earthquake relief, I still doubt on the effectiveness of the entire disaster response and the future prevention on the root cause of this devastation.

What I fear is the reenactment of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake victim relief program after the Tsunami struck. The initial overwhelming surge of response brought hope to thousands of desperate survivors, with promising aid from worldwide donations to the international awareness of the tragedy at hand. Governing bodies, institutions, non-for-profit organizations, corporations and individuals had all pledged passionately to assist in the overall relief effort. With millions of promising aid, the global community was positive that the relief effort would flow smoothly with the timely reconstruction for those who had lost everything.

It is now almost four years since the Tsunami, are the inhabitants better off? Has the reconstruction proceeded as scheduled? The last time I checked, nothing was as it seems. Some of the rebuilding effort went as planned, but majority of the remnant remains without being replaced as promised by the local governments. What was more nauseating is the hidden conversion clause for some of the new accommodations built by non-for-profit groups. Although they are free-of-charge, in order to live in the unit, the dweller must switch allegiance to Christianity. What about the millions of promising aid from the international audience? Where have it gone to? Many international watchdogs speculated the corruption, embroiled with the many stratification of the government, easily siphon off the donation until it amounted to nothing when percolating to the intended victims. This, together with the many examples of mismanagement, truly illustrates the selfishness and greediness of human being.

I sincerely hope, with the millions of aid money now being transferred to institutions and government overseeing the quake relief, what has happened to South East Asia would not happen to China. Furthermore, the PRC should show good faith by uprooting the true cause behind this massive death toll so the demised may rest in peace. Corruption-led casualties definitely outnumber the "real" earthquake victims. Specifically, corruption has given permits to buildings without steel enforcement, which toppled easily under the tremendous tremor, killing thousands. Corruption has selectively victimized the impoverished. When the school their pupils attended collapsed, killing all inside, the nearby government buildings and schools for the upper-class remained intact. What is more shocking is that corruption has led the victims without a fair compensation, their family without a fair say, and their soul without proper justice. Will China shows its benevolence by eradicating this fundamental problem of a one-party country? I highly doubt that is going to happen when the upper echelon thrives on corruption and leeches off the middle and lower classes. How could the victim have justice when the equality of the living is off-center?

The victims of the Sichuan earthquake, I hear you! One day, that very regime which brought corruption shall tumble and the everlasting peace will come. That one day is what we all hope for. That one day symbolizes the beginning of a new era. An era of no discrimination, false imprisonment and injustice. Equality will be upon us!

Sichuan Earthquake Memorial

The dilemma of helping the Mainlanders dawned on me once again few days ago, with a meeting amongst the delegates from the Chinese student clubs at the university. With half of the members missing, we are amongst strangers in the land of volunteer opportunities. With barely anyone available for the job of booking event location, I foolishly signed on. The eagerness slowly trickles into something much larger. Without further ado, all I can say is I ended up drafting the following speech for the Sichuan Earthquake Memorial, to be held this weekend at EBC

The shocking remnant of the Sichuan earthquake has all touched us one way or the other. The earthquake, registering an unforeseen magnitude of 8.0 on the Richter Scale, struck the Wenchuan county of Sichuan province in China on Monday May 12, 2008. This tragic event is the deadliest and strongest earthquake to hit China since the 1976 Tangshan earthquake.

Similar to the destructive power witnessed at the coast of South East Asia in 2004, the strong tremors instantly reduced houses, apartments, schools, office buildings, shops and hospitals into rubbles. And further forced thousands of people to evacuate, fearing that the remaining buildings may collapse at any moment. Apart from the destruction, thousands of lives were lost instantly when the tremor struck, with a score of victims found daily as the rescue effort continues.

We heard reports of children with missing parents, grieving couples with missing spouses and siblings, expecting mothers passed away with unborn babies and children too traumatized to speak. As of June 5, the official figures stand at approximately 69,000 confirmed dead, and 373,000 injured, with 18,000 listed as missing. The earthquake left about 4.8 million people homeless, though the number could be as high as 11 million.

For the survivors, this tragic event not only left a permanent scar but also continue to traumatize them with resonating aftershocks, which occurred almost daily since May 12. For them, what is more devastating is living under the constant fear that the quake-made lakes may burst anytime, drowning thousands. And the sea of rotting corpses, capable of a widespread pandemic, to further hinder the rescue effort.

Despite the daily report of casualties, there is hope. There is hope thanks to the generous donation contributed by you and me. There is hope thanks to countless number of people worldwide, from people living abroad to the immediate Asian neighbors. Who contributed passionately to the relief effort. So the funds may be used institutionally to save lives and provide shelters, food, and medicine for the needy.

We are all a part of the ongoing relief effort. To illustrate this, we, the graduate and undergraduate student clubs at University of Victoria has so far raised more than three thousand dollars. In addition to that, there are a number of passionate students pledging to contribute further, bringing the total beyond four thousand dollars. This amount symbolizes our perpetual and unconditional love for the earthquake victims in China. It is in fact quite substantial when considering most of the donors are students and scholars. Some of whom volunteered today to realize this memorial.

We hope this event can further raise awareness so the hopes and dreams of the survivors will not diminish, but flourish in the months to come.

Irrespective of what others may have said, it is definitely worth the hassle. I think it as an opportunity to refine my vocabulary and to have a chance to know the many faces of the student clubs. To me, it is something worthwhile and may venture beyond pure socializing. :P

The freedom fighter

It is just two days away. An event so great that it had repercussion all over China. No, it is neither the Beijing Olympics nor the Sichuan earthquake. It is the freedom fighter, one who rose against a tyrannical system on June 5, 1989. Fearless and daunting, this anonymous person stood in front of the approaching People's Liberation Army, and managed to halt its invasion for a moment so that the maimed and dying victims can have a chance to retreat from Tiananmen Square. The entire procession, although for only a few minutes, gave freedom fighters hope that one day China will be liberated from the pawns of its oppressive regime, that one day equality, freedom of expression and religion are no longer just mere slogans but constitutions which would protect its citizens from persecution and false imprisonment. The act of this individual was profound and was best described in Red China Blues by Jan Wong

"You'd better get out here," Norman said. It was noon on Monday, June 5, 1989. I dashed onto the balcony. A young man had leaped in front of a convoy of tanks. "Oh, no!" I cried. I held my breath. I was convinced he was going to die. My eyes filled with tears. Miraculously, the lead tank stopped. Standing underneath its giant muzzle, the young man looked like a kitten under a car fender. Annoyed at myself for crying so easily, I brushed away my tears so I could see clearly.

The tank twisted left, then right. Each time, the man stepped lightly in front. After a few feints, the tank switched off its engine. The whole street fell silent. The young man seemed to know his way around a tank. He scrambled onto its caterpillar treads and up onto the gun turret. Was he trying to reason with them? Another heart-stopping moments later, he climbed back down. Now run! I urged silently. But he didn't. The tank cranked up its motor and edged forward. Again, the man stepped in front and blocked it. By then a few people on the sidelines had regained their wits and they hustled him to safety. The convoy continued rumbling down the Avenue of Eternal Peace.

Who was he? Some overseas reports claimed he was a nineteen-year-old student named Wang Weilin and that he was later executed. Another report said he had been sentenced to ten years. Neither story was ever verified. My own history was that authorities had no idea who he was, either. In 1994, a Chinese journalist confirmed my hunch. She told me that her bosses at the Xinhua News Agency had tried in vain to find the mystery tank man. "They wanted to show him to the world to prove that China doesn't kill people," she said.

Apart from Red China Blues, many Western media reported the event from witness accounts and broadcast the Tank Man, a symbol for defending freedom from totalitarian states worldwide, to audiences around the globe. Its value will never be forgotten and will forever be imprinted as an example of struggle against oppression, libel, and accusation conjured up by the current regime in China to falsely incriminate the freedom fighters. In the end, the struggle against targeted discrimination will continue and we will prevail. One day, equality will be upon us and that is when world peace will arrive.

Fight on, I say!

Long live June 4, 1989!